As regulators consider introduction of new tobacco products, such as tobacco harm reduction products, they need to consider the impact of such introductions on the population as a whole. This requires weighing the potential benefit to individuals who may benefit from switching to a lower-risk product (e.g., current smokers) and potential arm to individuals who could potentially be harmed by adoption of such a product (e.g., youth who would not otherwise use tobacco). Moreover, such considerations may need to be weighed in a pre-market environment, where such issues cannot be resolved through observation. Computational modeling addresses this challenging issue.
This workshop introduces non-experts to computational modeling of tobacco product impacts on population health. It includes a non-technical introduction to modeling, and presentation of four diverse models of tobacco product impacts, from both academia and industry, highlighting the features of each model. The discussants bring a regulatory and tobacco science perspective on the current state of modeling. Time will be allocated for discussion and Q&A.
The proposed program is as follows:
- A non-technical introduction to population modeling (Saul Shiffman)
- Modeling the effect of a new tobacco product using a system dynamics model (Oscar Camacho)
- Modeling the population impact of snus with modified-risk claims using a cohort population model (Geoffrey Curtin)
- Modeling the potential impact of favorable e-cigarette policies (David Levy)
- Modeling the impact of smokeless tobacco modified-risk claims on population health (Thaddaeus Hannel) BIO
- Discussants (Ray Niaura)
- Raymond Niaura, PhD, College of Global Public Health, New York University
- Saul Shiffman, PhD, University of Pittsburgh and Pinney Associates
- David Levy, PhD, Lombardi Comprehensive Cancer Center, Georgetown University
- Annette Bachand, PhD, Ramboll
- Geoffrey Curtin, PhD, RAI Services Company
- Ryan Black, PhD, Altria Client Services
- David Mendez, PhD, Department of Health Management and Policy School of Public Health, University of Michigan