As regulators consider introduction of new tobacco products, such as tobacco harm reduction products, they need to consider the impact of such introductions on the population as a whole. This requires weighing the potential benefit to individuals who may benefit from switching to a lower-risk product (e.g., current smokers) and potential arm to individuals who could potentially be harmed by adoption of such a product (e.g., youth who would not otherwise use tobacco). Moreover, such considerations may need to be weighed in a pre-market environment, where such issues cannot be resolved through observation.  Computational modeling addresses this challenging issue.

This workshop introduces non-experts to computational modeling of tobacco product impacts on population health. It includes a non-technical introduction to modeling, and presentation of four diverse models of tobacco product impacts, from both academia and industry, highlighting the features of each model.  The discussants bring a regulatory and tobacco science perspective on the current state of modeling. Time will be allocated for discussion and Q&A.


The proposed program is as follows:

  • A non-technical introduction to population modeling (Saul Shiffman)
  • Modeling the effect of a new tobacco product using a system dynamics model (Oscar Camacho)
  • Modeling the population impact of snus with modified-risk claims using a cohort population model (Geoffrey Curtin)
  • Modeling the potential impact of favorable e-cigarette policies (David Levy)
  • Modeling the impact of smokeless tobacco modified-risk claims on population health (Thaddaeus Hannel) BIO
  • Discussants (Ray Niaura)

Training Team:

  • Raymond Niaura, PhD, College of Global Public Health, New York University
  • Saul Shiffman, PhD, University of Pittsburgh and Pinney Associates
  • David Levy, PhD, Lombardi Comprehensive Cancer Center, Georgetown University
  • Annette Bachand, PhD, Ramboll
  • Geoffrey Curtin, PhD, RAI Services Company
  • Ryan Black, PhD, Altria Client Services
  • David Mendez, PhD, Department of Health Management and Policy School of Public Health, University of Michigan

Register NOW

  • £129
  • This fee applies to Polish delegates, living and/or working in Poland and to private individuals resident and working in middle and low-income countries (please see World Bank classifications for details). It also applies to consumers (eg vapers and snus users) who are not employed by, or representing manufacturers, vendors or trade associations, and to those who are unwaged, including students in full-time education.
  • Sign Up

  • £265
  • This fee applies to individuals who are employed in education and/or research in the public sector, public sector organisations and NGOs.
  • ?
  • £350
  • This fee applies to those employed in, or representing small and medium enterprises (those with 20 or less employees and/or a turnover of less than £1m) producing or trading in nicotine products, providing services to them, or trade associations.
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  • £660
  • This fee applies to those who are employed by, or represent healthcare companies and those producing or trading in nicotine products, as well as to private consultancies and research companies.
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A late supplement of £50 will be added to all fees paid after Saturday 8th June 2019

Registration fees are payable in GB Pounds Sterling and payment methods are indicated on the registration system.

In order to register for the conference participation, click here. You will then be asked to create a username & password, and to complete your registration. Once you have the username created, you may also submit an abstract.


KAC Communications the organiser of GFN is committed to providing a platform for global public health debate, knowledge exchange and networking, underpinned by the principles of inclusiveness and multi-sectoral engagement

Company Details

8 Northumberland Avenue

+48 501 188 768


  • GFN
  • Tobacco harm reduction
  • Nicotine
  • Global Forum
  • Marriott
  • Michael Russell